Picko Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Guys I have the release date: 2015 Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneachicken Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Well, this wait is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FabriPav Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 It is known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyrofunk Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What is the probability that the single will be today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FabriPav Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 50%. Because it's either out today, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesseract Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What is the probability that the single will be today? My guess is 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demonocracy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 50%. Because it's either out today, or not. We don't have any reason to assign (equal) probabilities to both possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 On Dutch radio channel 3FM the DJ hinted at the new single this morning (just around 11:55). One of them asked the other "Isn't the new Muse single coming out tomorrow? Or is it next week?". Don't really know how trustworthy these DJ's are, but hey... it's something. I just listened back to the show and you're right! Roughly translated: Guy A: ''Talking about birthday presents, doesn't the new Muse single come as a present tomorrow?'' Guy B: ''Is that so?'' (In a way as if he's saying to the other guy: we can't talk about this) Guy A: ''There's going to be a new Muse, or was it next week?'' Then there's a 2 second silence and they start talking about pie as if they cut the subject. See what I did there But that conversation is actually legit. In the past 3FM played new Muse singles the day after they aired on BBC Radio 1's hottest record in the world, yes I know about the single being too offensive for radio (though I believe that was just a joke) and I do know there's not supposed to be a hottest record on Radio 1 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We don't have any reason to assign (equal) probabilities to both possibilities.We don't have any reason not to, which is how it works. Or which variables were you planning on using for determining the probability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demonocracy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We don't have any reason not to, which is how it works. Or which variables were you planning on using for determining the probability? I have to disagree with you on this. It seems counter-intuitive to assign equal probabilities to both possibilities, precisely because we do not have any information at all. Would you then say that it is equally likely that the single will be out today, and that the single will not be out today? We have no reason to believe so and thus should refrain from even assigning probabilities, unless we have reason to believe they are equally likely (if we were to assign a probability of 0.5 to each). Having no reason or information to assign probabilities does not entitle us to assign equal probabilities to both events, especially since they are non-random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jryder12 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This has a slight resemblance to a Muse song but I can't quite put my finger on which one I just listened back to the show and you're right! Roughly translated: Guy A: ''Talking about birthday presents, doesn't the new Muse single come as a present tomorrow?'' Guy B: ''Is that so?'' (In a way as if he's saying to the other guy: we can't talk about this) Guy A: ''There's going to be a new Muse, or was it next week?'' Then there's a 2 second silence and they start talking about pie as if they cut the subject. See what I did there But that conversation is actually legit. In the past 3FM played new Muse singles the day after they aired on BBC Radio 1's hottest record in the world, yes I know about the single being too offensive for radio (though I believe that was just a joke) and I do know there's not supposed to be a hottest record on Radio 1 today. Hmm potentially encouraging? Also, really like the song attached in your signature, reminds me of Nine Inch Nails! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Heat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ok let's talk about maths now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenAroused Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 My prediction for the album release: Thousands of drones will unexpectedly appear in the skies of the biggest cities in the world and will drop free copies of the album all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdrunner95 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ok let's talk about maths now. Sure. Anyone wanna do my derivative homework for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Heat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I think it's illegal but that would be fucking amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceansize Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Imagine angry mob of Muse fans tonight, when Zane doesn't play Muse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LewisF Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Imagine angry mob of Muse fans tonight, when Zane doesn't play Muse. We weren't expecting him to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceansize Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I like to call myself "angry mob of muse fans". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FabriPav Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 We weren't expecting him to. Many on twitter will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con101 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 My prediction for the album release: Thousands of drones will unexpectedly appear in the skies of the biggest cities in the world and will drop free copies of the album all over the place. But will David Cameron tell us why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Origin of Sass Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I just listened back to the show and you're right! Roughly translated: Guy A: ''Talking about birthday presents, doesn't the new Muse single come as a present tomorrow?'' Guy B: ''Is that so?'' (In a way as if he's saying to the other guy: we can't talk about this) Guy A: ''There's going to be a new Muse, or was it next week?'' Then there's a 2 second silence and they start talking about pie as if they cut the subject. See what I did there But that conversation is actually legit. In the past 3FM played new Muse singles the day after they aired on BBC Radio 1's hottest record in the world, yes I know about the single being too offensive for radio (though I believe that was just a joke) and I do know there's not supposed to be a hottest record on Radio 1 today. Was it on MetMichiel? I caught the bit about birthday presents after which they said something about 1984 and played Resistance but that's it. EDIT: never mind, clicked the tab away too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Was it on MetMichiel? I caught the bit about birthday presents after which they said something about 1984 and played Resistance but that's it. Yes it was, after Resistance they played another song, and then they talked a bit and out of the blue this other guy mentioned the new Muse single Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Livs Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Muse were one of the few people tagged. Coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceansize Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Let's hype ourselves up so we can feel like shit afterwards when nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Origin of Sass Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yes it was, after Resistance they played another song, and then they talked a bit and out of the blue this other guy mentioned the new Muse single Figured that out just before you said it, haha. Anyways, I doubt the single will be released tomorrow, however in a week sounds quite likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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