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This is correct. Assigning equal probabilities to both outcomes is just plain wrong. By the same logic you could say the probability of you drawing an ace of hearts from a full untampered deck of cards is 50% since the card you draw either will be or wont be the ace of hearts. But in reality the probability of you drawing that specific card is 1/52.

 

You could then go on to say that the probability of you drawing three cards and one of them being the ace of hearts is 150% = 1.5, which violates the laws of probability. (the actual probability is 3/52)

Not even gonna try to explain my post. This is obviously correct.
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This is correct. Assigning equal probabilities to both outcomes is just plain wrong. By the same logic you could say the probability of you drawing an ace of hearts from a full untampered deck of cards is 50% since the card you draw either will be or wont be the ace of hearts. But in reality the probability of you drawing that specific card is 1/52.

 

You could then go on to say that the probability of you drawing three cards and one of them being the ace of hearts is 150% = 1.5, which violates the laws of probability. (the actual probability is 3/52)

 

basically this

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Oh I know you were. But then Sippe and Demonocracy started discussing actual probability so I said I'd chip in.

 

Ooooh ok, nvm.

 

 

Quite a few people believed that fake screenshot that was posted yesterday, as I reposted it on twitter. Not surprising, it's Muse fans.

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Question is why wouldn't Zane Lowe promote the fact he is premiering Muse's new single? Seems like no one gains from a secret release apart from the die hard fans.

 

Then again they-who-must-not-be-named did it with their last album so I guess it can work.

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Question is why wouldn't Zane Lowe promote the fact he is premiering Muse's new single? Seems like no one gains from a secret release apart from the die hard fans.

 

Then again they-who-must-not-be-named did it with their last album so I guess it can work.

 

The Dark Side?

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My prediction for the album release: Thousands of drones will unexpectedly appear in the skies of the biggest cities in the world and will drop free copies of the album all over the place.

 

When the drones fill the skies...will zan lowe tell us why? ;)

 

No, i don't expect we'll get something today. I think next week is more realistic.

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I mean there's a possible single debut every day...

 

3FM a Dutch radio station mentioned there would be a single tomorrow, then he asked: ''Or was it next week''?

 

They know something, and I don't see Muse telling them there will be a new song they can play in a week. They want to keep this stuff secret so they'll say it a day or two in advance I imagine. Anyone knows how this stuff usually goes?

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3FM a Dutch radio station mentioned there would be a single tomorrow, then he asked: ''Or was it next week''?

 

They know something, and I don't see Muse telling them there will be a new song they can play in a week. They want to keep this stuff secret so they'll say it a day or two in advance I imagine. Anyone knows how this stuff usually goes?

 

I know exactly how this usually goes. Someone on the radio jokingly says something, fans take it seriously and get their hopes up, nothing happens, everyone is disappointed.

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Question is why wouldn't Zane Lowe promote the fact he is premiering Muse's new single? Seems like no one gains from a secret release apart from the die hard fans.

 

Then again they-who-must-not-be-named did it with their last album so I guess it can work.

 

Shut up please.

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