ryanp16 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I was kidding... Oh I know you were. But then Sippe and Demonocracy started discussing actual probability so I said I'd chip in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolFunkMan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 If the single is released today, I will eat a hat... ...a delicious hat made of cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This is correct. Assigning equal probabilities to both outcomes is just plain wrong. By the same logic you could say the probability of you drawing an ace of hearts from a full untampered deck of cards is 50% since the card you draw either will be or wont be the ace of hearts. But in reality the probability of you drawing that specific card is 1/52. You could then go on to say that the probability of you drawing three cards and one of them being the ace of hearts is 150% = 1.5, which violates the laws of probability. (the actual probability is 3/52) Not even gonna try to explain my post. This is obviously correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wickerman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdrunner95 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This is correct. Assigning equal probabilities to both outcomes is just plain wrong. By the same logic you could say the probability of you drawing an ace of hearts from a full untampered deck of cards is 50% since the card you draw either will be or wont be the ace of hearts. But in reality the probability of you drawing that specific card is 1/52. You could then go on to say that the probability of you drawing three cards and one of them being the ace of hearts is 150% = 1.5, which violates the laws of probability. (the actual probability is 3/52) basically this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FabriPav Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Oh I know you were. But then Sippe and Demonocracy started discussing actual probability so I said I'd chip in. Ooooh ok, nvm. Quite a few people believed that fake screenshot that was posted yesterday, as I reposted it on twitter. Not surprising, it's Muse fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con101 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Question is why wouldn't Zane Lowe promote the fact he is premiering Muse's new single? Seems like no one gains from a secret release apart from the die hard fans. Then again they-who-must-not-be-named did it with their last album so I guess it can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wickerman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Question is why wouldn't Zane Lowe promote the fact he is premiering Muse's new single? Seems like no one gains from a secret release apart from the die hard fans. Then again they-who-must-not-be-named did it with their last album so I guess it can work. The Dark Side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alibros Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 are we still talking about Z?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Con101 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 A Muse loving Liverpool fan? touche my friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DyingAtheist98 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 My prediction for the album release: Thousands of drones will unexpectedly appear in the skies of the biggest cities in the world and will drop free copies of the album all over the place. When the drones fill the skies...will zan lowe tell us why? No, i don't expect we'll get something today. I think next week is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrMalkfredt Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Maybe tomorrow we get official news or another instagram tease to go crazy over the weekend. Next week loop never ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm surprised no one's talking about the possible single debut tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceansize Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I feel like i'm in a Groundhog Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeirdF Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm surprised no one's talking about the possible single debut tomorrow. I mean there's a possible single debut every day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrMalkfredt Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm surprised no one's talking about the possible single debut tomorrow. 0615 = 6 march @ 15:00pm ? Yes, we've talked about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I mean there's a possible single debut every day... 3FM a Dutch radio station mentioned there would be a single tomorrow, then he asked: ''Or was it next week''? They know something, and I don't see Muse telling them there will be a new song they can play in a week. They want to keep this stuff secret so they'll say it a day or two in advance I imagine. Anyone knows how this stuff usually goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DifferentPerson Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 3FM a Dutch radio station mentioned there would be a single tomorrow, then he asked: ''Or was it next week''? They know something, and I don't see Muse telling them there will be a new song they can play in a week. They want to keep this stuff secret so they'll say it a day or two in advance I imagine. Anyone knows how this stuff usually goes? I know exactly how this usually goes. Someone on the radio jokingly says something, fans take it seriously and get their hopes up, nothing happens, everyone is disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolFunkMan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I know exactly how this usually goes. Someone on the radio jokingly says something, fans take it seriously and get their hopes up, nothing happens, everyone is disappointed. "I'm Matt Bellamy, you're not a friend of me." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furygirl Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I feel like i'm in a Groundhog Day. Or hell. Your username. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wickerman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Plot twist: 0615 is a cryptographed version of the word "Psycho" or the word "Drones"... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CatchHellBlues Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Plot twist: 0615 is a cryptographed version of the word "Psycho" or the word "Drones"... lol ORLY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonisdead Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Question is why wouldn't Zane Lowe promote the fact he is premiering Muse's new single? Seems like no one gains from a secret release apart from the die hard fans. Then again they-who-must-not-be-named did it with their last album so I guess it can work. Shut up please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oceansize Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Anyway... Zane is being bombarded with questions about Muse single. Why can't he just spare the sanity of those people and tweet - "No Muse tonight, folks". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alesi08 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Anyway... Zane is being bombarded with questions about Muse single. Why can't he just spare the sanity of those people and tweet - "No Muse tonight, folks". Because listeners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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